What A Friday Brawl! Moneyball Wins #1, Lion King 3D #2, Dolphin Tale #3, Abduction #4, Killer Elite #5

FRIDAY11 PM, 2NDUPDATE: Finally, I have some clarityfollowing Rentrak hiccups during the day and early evening. Not to mentionevery studio’s confusion over the ordering of the Top 5 because of fierce fights going on at the North American box office throughout today. And, geez,I’m supposed to be on vacation: 1. My sources say Sony’s newcomerMoneyball has been rising as the night goes on for maybe the best baseball-themed opening ever. It’s definitelyNo. 1 Friday with approximately $6.8M from 2,993 theaters. (As a Sony exec told me, “$6 million would be great. $7 million amazing. $8 million would be a triumph.”) With a healthy adult bump tomorrow, it’s looking at a $20M weekend. That solid number helps keep Brad Pitt’s star wattage shining and his awards chances climbing because ofthis well-reviewed male-centric sports movie.Audiences really liked this pic: it received all A’s — male, female, young, old — from CinemaScore. 2. Even Disney is surprised that its Lion King 3D is in 2nd place tonight from 2,330 theaters which sold mostly higher priced tickets.But rival studios tell me itgot a boost today from the rain backEast for a $6.1M Friday, oran excellent holding -31% from its opening a week ago.With the normal kiddie matinee bump, that’s a $20M weekend as well.This re-release’s projectedis $60M by Monday. Here’s my question: why is it that in all the promotional hype I’ve been sent by the studio about this pic, no one at Disney is thanking Jeffrey Katzenberg for micro-managing the original? C’mon, Mouse House, give credit where credit is due. Even if Jeffrey is a big pain ineveryone’s ass. 3. Not far behind is Alcon Entertainment’s Dolphin Tale in 3,507 theaters.Distributor Warner Brossaid it opened with $5M today but rival studios think the Friday number iscloser to $5.5M.Alcon thinks that,unlessitsmaimed mammal loses to Moneyball by more than a mil today, that the heartstrings-pulling pic should jump 60% on Saturday because of the family film bump and hit $24M and win the weekend.Hmm. Remember,it’s also playing in the most theaters.And, for weeks, it wastracking strong. According to the CinemaScores, parents and kidsin the audience are giving it an A+. 4.Lionsgate’s Abduction in 3,118 theaters may end uparound $4.2M Friday and what could be mid-teens but also just $11M for the weekend depending on how front-loaded it becomes. (That’s what happened to Zac Efron in Charlie St Cloud.)Then again, I’velearned that Taylor Lautner’s $36M-budget action thriller was outspent 4-to-1 in marketing dollars by both Sony and Warner Bros leading up to this weekend. Shame on Lionsgate’s Jon Feltheimer for tying everyone’s hands even after powerless Alli Shearmur pleaded.So anyone who claimed this Twilight kid couldn’t open an envelope is wrong: there are major stars who still would be thrilled with that outcome, especially in as rotten a reviewed movie as this one. Audiences didn’t think it was as bad as critics, giving it a B- CinemaScore.Too bad Lionsgate can’t seem to make a decent movie or market one anymore. 5.Remains to be seen if Abduction can edge out Killer Elite whichmay be $10M for the weekend from 2,986 theaters. Open Road Films is expressingoptimism that itspic will likely go upon Saturday after its $3.5M debut today. Here’s the rest of the Top 10 (Full analysis coming) 6. Contagion (Participant/Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,136 Theaters] Friday $2.8M, Estimated Weekend $9M, Estimated Cume $57.5M 7. Drive (FilmDistrict) Week 2 [2,904 Theaters] Friday $2M (-50%), Estimated Weekend $6M, Estimated Cume $21.6M 8. The Help (Participant/DreamWorks/Disney] Week 7 [2,695 Theaters] Friday $1.3M, Estimated Weekend $4.5M, Estimated cume $154.5M 9. I Don’t Know How She Does It (Weinstein Co) Week 2 [2,490 Theaters] Friday $700K (-55%), Estimated weekend $2M,Estimated Cume $8M 10. Straw Dogs (Sony) Week 2 [2,408 Theaters] Friday $600K (-62%), Estimated Weekend $1.8M, Estimated Cume $8.5M FRIDAY 4 PM: On vacation. So box office is brought to you from a sunny climate where the palm trees sway in time to the dancing trade winds… But back home there’s a fierce fight going on. These are very early grosses, and my sources say Rentrak has been experiencing problems today — thus giving Hollywood even more Maalox moments than usual. Sony’s Moneyball starring Brad Pitt will be No. 1 with approx $8M Friday and possibly mid-$20sM for the weekend. That solid number helps Brad Pitt’s awards chances in this well-received male-centric sports movie. Right now Alcon Entertainment/Warner Bros’ Dolphin Tale and Lionsgate’s Abduction are battling for No. 2 with around $6M today and what could be high teens for the weekend. Interesting, because the heartstrings-pulling pic was tracking much better. Then again, Taylor Lautner’s action thriller is playing in 389 less theaters. So anyone who claimed this Twilight kid couldn’t open an envelope is wrong, wrong, wrong: there are major stars who would be thrilled with that outcome, especially in as rotten a reviewed movie as this one. Open Road’s Killer Elite looks a notch lower – maybe $5M today, and low teens for the weekend. Frequent updates coming with full analysis.

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